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chewing on

May 2025

a running list of random things, trends and notes

some of the ideas/insights i'm currently chewing on

**work in progress


5/25

  • superior product wins in the late stage - distribution wins at all stages (esp. early)

    • distribution is only becoming more and more paramount as software sunsets and AI becomes more commoditized (i.e. AI voice products, AI travel planners etc.) distribution will most likely win here


  • as we move closer to AGI - what will the human experience/purpose be?


6/25

  • we are moving towards a fully agentic world, there is no stopping it.

    • i don't think the next generation of $B companies will be agent service providers it will be the raw materials + manufacturing + build ecosystem that powers them. i believe there will be a regression towards "traditional" businesses with agents fixing issues that have previously inhibited these businesses from reaching scale or being too capital intensive.

    • how do i get conviction in a company that may be completely replaced by AI?


7/25

  • original ideas (i.e. creativity) are more powerful than ever

    • ideas used to be cheap not anymore


  • can "cool" be manufactured?

  • what does it look like to be an "essential worker" in the age of AI?


8/25

  • the 2nd order effects of more and more agentic AI tools hitting the market will be a 2nd wave of tools to help people manage, deploy, and scale the agentic tools from the first wave

    • working on a hypothesis for wave #3


  • is it possible for a software to bring us back to being human? or is that just too ironic?


9/25

  • why does everything need protein in it?


  • net new (no rev, no product) > company that has been alive 8+ months with no breakout momentum

    • ^^ this phenomena is new for me

    • only types of deals getting done are "net-new" or expensive + hype seed-ish co's

      • last 2 investments were one of each


10/25

  • in may the bar was crazy high to be a vc-backed funded at the early stages, rn it's a founders market -- feels like these cycles are tightening and compounding. doesn't feel corrective at all just inflated, but i guess it always feels this way?


  • building in areas where you have operated is paramount, empathy isn't enough.

    • getting second hand insights from advisors, peers, investors, etc. is like getting hand me down clothes -- late to the trends and they never quite fit right


  • are there any truly new thoughts or ideas anymore?

    • i think there is an argument that this is only getting worse as ai responses are all derived from a prompt

    • will all content, media, product, ideas, etc. just eventually become a cheap derivative of something prior? i believe "ai slop" is the early innings of this.

11/25

  • no thoughts just mexico travel :)


12/25

some 2026 predicitions/thoughts

  • the Series A crunch from 2024 will have permanently reshaped Seed financing: extreme valuation dispersion, hyper-competitive rounds, as investors push to hit ownership targets earlier and earlier

  • with the public markets performance increasingly propped up by a small concentration of AI-native companies, the AI bubble pop is coming

    • openAI’s cash burn, coupled with spending commitments they may not be able to fund, mirrors the behavior of late-stage Enron and will result in a similar outcome

    • nvidia will see a "crash" like Cisco in the 00’s (GPUs is to LLMs as Hardware is to the Internet). Cisco was the hardware powering the age of the internet, similar to Nvidia today.

      • i'm not saying the company is going to blow up, okay, but I'm saying there will be a reckoning in the public markets of some kind (**working on something longer form here)


01/26

  • global oil sales are denominated in dollars, obviously the US is worried about that changing...

    • the petrodollar keeps demand for USD high (some infiation of value here) Rn capital is currently being funneled into US financial and tech assets rather than physical production. As domestic growth becomes increasingly concentrated in AI, headline GDP is stabilized without rebuilding physical systems, leaving commodities and infrastructure underpriced until failure or geopolitics force a sudden repricing. (a.k.a recession)

    • i’m not an economist, and candidly, I didn't do particualrly well in my 300-level econ courses (srry Dr. Thompson), but I’ve been thinking a lot about how AI is beginning to reshape geopolitics and the way nations prioritize assets and maintaining power


** last updated 01/02

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